Energy prices remained the focal point of the bond markets this week. As the US/Iran peace deal showed signs a breaking down, oil prices and mortgage rates both rose. We will end the week back to 6.375% for our best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.

Most of the economic news was good for mortgage rates this week but rates climbed up just a bit due to a flood of trading associated with end of the quarter positioning. We will end the week back at 6.25% for our best 30-year fixed conventional scenario.

Mortgage markets remained sensitive to energy prices this week. The potential agreement to ease tensions in the Middle East helped push oil prices down to their lowest levels since late February, reducing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the economic reports revealed no major surprises and had only a modest impact on financial markets. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little lower, we are now down to 6.125% for our best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.

Several good days offset by one bad will leave rates right about where they ended last week, still right at 6.25% for our very best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.

This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. Thursday’s news that President Trump had cancelled planned air strikes and that both sides had approved final details of a permanent ceasefire, fueled a strong reaction with stocks rallying, oil falling, and rates dropping. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.

Rising oil pricing and a strong employment report pushed rates back up a bit this week. We will end the week back at 6.375% for our very best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.