Mortgage rates continued to see a bit of volatility this week, reacting to changing oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. However, the biggest driver came at the end of the week, when weaker than expected labor market data pushed mortgage rates lower. We will end the week back to 6.375% for our best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.

Mortgage rates saw more volatility this week, driven largely by fluctuating oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The latest economic data had little impact on financial markets, and the Fed meeting revealed no significant surprises. Mortgage rates finished the week slightly higher, with our best 30 year fixed conventional scenario at 6.49%.

Most of the economic news was good for mortgage rates this week but rates climbed up just a bit due to a flood of trading associated with end of the quarter positioning. We will end the week back at 6.25% for our best 30-year fixed conventional scenario.

Several good days offset by one bad will leave rates right about where they ended last week, still right at 6.25% for our very best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.

This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. Thursday’s news that President Trump had cancelled planned air strikes and that both sides had approved final details of a permanent ceasefire, fueled a strong reaction with stocks rallying, oil falling, and rates dropping. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.

Rising oil pricing and a strong employment report pushed rates back up a bit this week. We will end the week back at 6.375% for our very best 30-year fixed Conventional scenario.